Looking at the Window of Opportunity

This article is about a concept relating to drafting that I have been mulling over for a while. I’m sure there are some kinks in the idea that I need to work out, but I think it will provide for some insights on how to view the draft as a whole, not as a simple series of picks.

Until you can figure out how to magically will card into packs (see Maverick) there is no way to guarantee that you will open an individual card in a pack, or you can automatically go into a single draft strategy. In each pack, you have about a 10% chance of seeing a specific common, a 5% chance of an uncommon, a 1.5% chance of a rare, and .75% chance of a rare. There is more to the story, in the entire draft 2.4 of each common will be opened, 1.2 of each uncommon, .2 of each mythic rare, and .4 of each rare. Of course a single doom blade, or 3, does not a deck make. You shouldn’t be planning on what to draft before you open up a pack, but let’s say you first picked a doomblade. A solid first pick. Now you need other cards. For simplicity’s sake, let’s look at all the cards you’d want play in black in m10:
Common:
Assassinate
Child of Night
Doom Blade
Dread Warlock
GraveDigger
Kelinore Bat
Looming Shade
Mind Rot
Tendils of Corruption
Sign in Blood
Warpath ghoul
Uncommon:

Black Knight
Bog Wraith
Consume Spirit
Diabolic Tutor
Howling Banshee
Rise from the Grave

Rare:
Cemetery Reaper
Hypnotic Spectre
Mind Shatter
Nightmare
Royal Assasin
Xatharid Demon


Mythic:
Lilliana Vess
Vampire Nocturnus

That’s 11 commons, 6 uncommons, 6 rares, and 2 mythics.
There will be variances due to common runs, but before it’s opened, a pack will have 1.1 of these commons, .3 of these uncommons, .1 of these rares, and .016 of these mythics. A total of around 1.5 cards. That puts around 36 of these cards being opened up in a single draft. Going mono is going to be very hard, which is why you generally pick up two colors in draft. The pack you receive from your right will have a card missing, hopefully not in black (we’ll go over the importance of knowing common runs in another post), and you will have to begin to make value judgments based on what is left in the pack and what is already in your stack of drafted cards.
First pick , first pack, with no bias yet for the colors you already have, or the strategy of your deck, chances are you are going to pick what you believe is the best card in the pack. As the packs go around the table and you begin to fight with the players around you for resources and the dwindling number of good cards.
Every card in the set has a window of opportunity where you have a good chance of seeing that card. The window of opportunity is directly tied to the raw power of the card, and, generally, how much it’s worth. A card like Baneslayer Angel has a base WoO of 1. Baring a foil Baneslayer, you will never see this beyond your packs in a draft. Jitte and Masticore had a base WoO of 1, as would Wrath of God and Broodmate Dragon as well. Looking at some of the traditional 1st pick cards, something like Mind Control, Fireball, or Overrun have WoOs around 2. If a rare or another uncommon is missing, then someone could have taken a better card over this. If you see a card after its WoO should have closed, then it is a signal that the color, or strategy, is open. Doomblade has a WoO of around 3, Lightning Bolt around the same, and Pacifism around a 4. In m10, mana fixers like Teramorphic Expanse, Rampant Growth and Boarderland Ranger have WoOs of around 5-6.

These numbers are probably not totally accurate, but here are some estimates on the WoOs for the black cards above:
Common:
Assassinate (5)
Child of Night (6)
Doom Blade (3)
Dread Warlock (4)
GraveDigger (4)
Kelinore Bat (6)
Looming Shade (5)
Mind Rot (6)
Tendils of Corruption (4)
Sign in Blood (4)
Warpath ghoul (7)
Uncommon:

Black Knight (4)
Bog Wraith (6)
Consume Spirit (4)
Diabolic Tutor (5)
Howling Banshee (3)
Rise from the Grave (4)

Rare:
Cemetery Reaper (2)
Hypnotic Spectre (2)
Mind Shatter (3)
Nightmare (4)
Royal Assasin (2)
Xatharid Demon (3)


Mythic:
Lilliana Vess (2)
Vampire Nocturnus (3)
Some of the cards with higher color commitments, even early in the first pack, have disproportional WoOs to their power levels. Tendrils and Nightmare are great cards, but they require a very heavy, sometimes mono, black commitment. In a set like m10 there are a lot of bomb rares and bomb uncommons, so seeing a 3rd pick Doomblade isn’t out of the ordinary.
Your goal, in any draft, is to be at the right place in the draft where you will receive as many cards as possible beyond their standard window of opportunity. This will maximize your chances of having the highest quality deck possible. You can do this by dumb luck (going mono black next to people who independently decided to go g/w and r/u), or by engineering your spot through what you pick and what you pass. This often means passing
During the second pack, these numbers change significantly, both depending on what has been opened and on the colors around you. While someone playing blue/green may 1st pick a Fireball, they will not first pick a Royal Assassin. In fact, if you have successfully signaled the players downstream from you, and they are locked into colors, you can easily increase the WoOs of these cards by 1 or more. It would be not uncommon to get a 3rd or 4th pick Doomblade if the two players next to you are Blue/White and Green/Red. You are getting all the black picks from those players. However, if you first picked a Royal Assassin over Doomblade and Howling Banshee, you can count on reducing those WoOs by at least one if not two for pack 2. This should give you an idea of why it’s often a good decision to take the less powerful card in your opening pack if it means passing the two players left of you out of at least one of your colors.
Tied to that, if there were no mana fixers opened up in the first pack, you should expect to see the mana fixers in pack 2 and 3 valued higher. This isn’t as significant for m10, but it should impact how high you take them in packs 2 and 3 in an ACR draft.
WoOs also should speak to how you value the types of cards in a draft. Let’s look at just the commons and uncommon above, and divide them into what role they serve in your deck:
Creatures
Child of Night (6)
GraveDigger (4)
Looming Shade (5)
Warpath ghoul (7)
Black Knight (4)
Bog Wraith (6)
Evasion Creatures
Dread Warlock (4)
Kelinore Bat (6)
Howling Banshee (3)
Removal
Assassinate (5)
Doom Blade (3)
Tendils of Corruption (4)
Consume Spirit (4)
Card Draw
Sign in Blood (4)

Other
Mind Rot (6)
Diabolic Tutor (5)
Rise from the Grave (4)


The latest pick you will probably be seeing removal in black is around 5th pick. The same can be said for removal in most colors – the WoO is much lower than that of your average creature. Take removal first, and creatures second. Within the creatures, let’s look at it by casting cost:

2
Child of Night (6)
Black Knight (4)
3
Looming Shade (5)
Warpath ghoul (7)
Dread Warlock (4)
Kelinore Bat (6)
Howling Banshee (3)
4
GraveDigger (4)
Bog Wraith (6)

As you can see, the three drop in Black is overloaded. With only two good two-drops, you should be taking them earlier than you might normally unless you pair it with a color that does have a number of good two-drops (like white). Being aware of how late you can expect to see cards at each casting cost lets you prioritize two cards of fairly similar power level early on based on how you can find similar cards to fill in the gaps for your deck later on.
One last thing to mention about WoOs. Let’s say you see a Tome Scour in your 1st pack, one in your 2nd pack, then you get passed a 3rd pick Traumatize. Do you go into the Tome Scour deck? Well, what gets opened in the first set of packs has no real bearing on what gets opened in the following set of packs, especially with the rares appearing twice on the rare sheet. It is very common now to see the same rare multiple times in a draft. Still, the odds of you seeing another Traumatize is low, but if you know you will see another two Tomescours (that card has a WoO over eight so you will probably see every one that is opened) in this pack. There is also an 80% chance of any given common being opened in one of the next round of boosters, so you should see between one and two more Tomescours in the subsequent packs. Should you go into it? Probably not, but you are very likely to end up with a draft deck that would include a Traumatize and four Tomescours. If that is enough for you to draft the wacky deck, then by all means do so. If you choose to go red, Burning Inquiry also has a WoO over eight, so you will see every one of those as well.

This idea is still pretty early in its development for me. I’m still trying to work out numbers, the kinks, and figure out how to apply it to improving my own drafting. The cards that most interest me in regard to them right now are the allies in Zendikar, which will probably require two main card types – allies and mana fixing. Figuring out how to prioritize those properly will probably spell the difference between a good Ally deck, or one that is overloaded with mana fixing, or one that has to stretch its fixing too thin to support the great allies you have.

Swiss Drafting, and why you should be doing it

As Zendikar spoilers keep coming in, I want to take a look at the limited environment and talk about how to win PTQs.

As the majority of cards spoiled so far are rares, and we don't have a real grasp on that format yet, I'm going to start off with better ways to test limited.

The PTQ Top8 format is slightly different than normal drafting. Not mechanically, but in the risk/rewards. While most drafts from FNM to the Pro Tour encourage you to have a winning record, the PTQ top8 doesn't care about anything but a win. It's all or nothing every game. And it isn't just six packs you're going for, it's a spot on the Pro Tour and a plane ticket.

The MODO 8-4s get close to this, but it's still not quite the same. You are still looking to make the finals with your deck, and possibly split. You can have a moral victory of making the finals of a PTQ, but in the end, it doesn't matter if you went 0-1 or 2-1, all that matters is this loss. You need to be prepared to play for 3-0.

Part of that means playing at your highest level, but it's also your strategy in how you draft your deck. You need to be aware of the popular decks in the format, especially whatever deck is regarded as the best. In m10, if you think mono black is the best deck, you should either be drafting it, or actively looking for sideboard cards against it. Those cards are most obvious with the color hosers in m10, but in a block like Alara, it may mean taking the Fracture Filagrees higher than normal because Esper is the best deck, and you need to be able to beat it. You should be sideboarding a lot more in a top8 draft than you are used to.

In formats with linear deck strategies (say a tribal block), you want to be focused on one of those strategies. That may mean making a commitment to a strategy far earlier than you are used to, but you aren't playing it safe. You are playing to win.

You also need to work very hard on reading signals and being very aware of the cards you pass. A train wreck in a team draft isn't usually that bad because you end up hurting the two people next to you as well. If it is a total disaster, and both you and the two people next to you 1-2, your team is up +1 matches. That can be a good thing. A train wreck won't prevent you from 2-1ing, but going 3-0 is going to be hard, if not impossible.

As I learn more about the Zendikar format, I will be able to talk better about the individual pitfalls of that format, but for now I just want to go over how to do a swiss draft.

Swiss drafting

The set up is pretty simple. Get eight people together (seven works too, which is nice, since this is the only legitimate draft format I know of that can handle seven people without too much of a problem. Seat people randomly and draft. At the end, play the person across from you.

The most common way to do it would be to pair randomly with people with the same record as you. You will play three rounds, then divide the rares up like this:

1st place - 2 picks

2nd place - 1 pick (lost in finals)

3rd & 4th - 1 pick (roll to determine who goes first). Then repeat the rare picking with the 1st place only getting one.

In this situation, you are heavily rewarded for winning, and somewhat rewarded for making 2nd. The advantage of this system, especially early on during a set's release, is that you get to play a lot more magic and learn the cards. The down side if you are still being rewarded for going 2-1. This would be perfect for testing for PTs and GPs, but not PTQs.

Once you are familiar with the format, if you want to get really ready for the top8 draft, play a swiss draft out as single elimination with the winner getting everything. No take-backs, no mercy. The winner walks away with 24 rares. The losers have to wait for everyone else to finish. It seems pretty draconian, but it helps you get used to the pressure of the situation. If you are in the top8, you are there to win, not to put up a respectable performance. You need to get used to paying for your mistakes and really reaping the rewards for your successes. You need to get used to fighting for every win and making the tough decisions in both drafting and playing that are required to get there.

I wouldn't play hardcore drafts all the time - 3v3s are just more fun - but doing a few to practice for the PTQ season will get you in the mindset you need to win once you make the top8.

Some updates

First off, a quick note about my major non-magic related pursuit, fiction. I recently had a story published on Anderbo.com, an online journal. Click here to read it. It's my second published story.

I've got a few magic related posts I'm working on. I should be able to get one up this weekend, and at least one up this week. Also, I'm hoping to attend the Cubestravaganza in Louisville this weekend.

One thing I did want to mention, m10 and the xbox game seem to be having the desired effect. I went to FNM last week and there were a lot of new DCI cards given out. Several of the players really hadn't been to tournaments ever, or hadn't played in ten years. I'm glad to see Magic doing well, and somewhat shocked to see just how recession-proof the game seems to be. I for one am always really happy to see new people playing. Yes they make terrible mistakes and screw up drafts by being solid 4 colors, but new players who continue become regulars, which help to refill playgroups with new members. When a playgroup stops growing, it starts dying. I hope to see some of those same people come back again to keep Magic in my area strong.

My Thoughts on Functional Reprints

I want to start off by saying I don't mind the functional reprints in m10 that much. I think I get why WotC decided to do it. True, I'd rather have Borderline Ranger be an Elf, and Remove Soul seemed like a more appropriate name than Essence Shatter (though I guess the idea that these creatures we throw around and send to their deaths have souls might be a little disturbing), but overall I'm fine with the whole thing.

I understand the anger, though. People get attached to cards, that's part of the beauty of magic. I know people who still have the first rare they ever opened up. In the last IPA draft I played in, the day before Odyssey came out, I opened a Draco. I loved 5c, was already in 5c. I slammed it. 3-0'd the draft, and I still have the card. I used to keep it in my wallet. It's not tournament legal, but that's not the point. That's how attached I was to that card and that format. Whenever I play with Jitte in extended, I use the stamped one I opened at PT-London. I have basic lands that I've been using for years. All of these things give me a small sense of joy when I play the game. I feel a sense of nostalgia whenever I play my Arena Counterspell that I got for joining the DCI. Functional reprints kill some of this fun. While I don't see Counterspell or Jitte being in t2 anytime soon, being able to play my Italian Legends Remove Souls that I opened at the first Arena event during Origins 96 would be fun.

Functional reprints make a lot of sense in expansions, especially when the originals have names that tie them to their setting. We get to see Alara's version of a RG 2/2 pro blue creature instead of wondering how a Yavimaya Barbarian got there. Or the Goblin version of a red creature we might have played before. They seem appropriate with all the plane hopping. You wouldn't want a Council of the Soratami on Mirrodin, but with Dominaria being the center of the multiverse, we understand there being some level of flavor bleed from other planes in there. Beyond that, are we to believe that Grizzly Bears were wiped out on Dominaria by their slightly more flavorful Rune-covered cousins? Is the push to remove any references to Earth that important?

Rares changing names and going to uncommons doesn't bother me personally because I don't have a large collection of rares, I tend to liquidate them every few years. Maybe if I did, the hit to the value of my Lions would hurt, as would not being able to play my older versions. I do, however, have a LOT of old commons/uncommons. I got a kick out of playing my AQ Atogs in Mirrodin block. I picked up a set of AQ Ornithopters when I was playing Affinity in Extended. I hunted around for a set of Beta Stone Rains when Magnavore was popular in t2, and threw in some Legends Boomerangs. These cards may not be worth much money, but they are worth a lot emotionally. They remind me of the past, and what it was like the play with the cards the first time they were printed. I can look at my lethal 12/2 Ornithopter and remember being in middle school, being made fun of for playing the card. Who would play an 0/2 flyer? It doesn't do anything. Well, who's laughing now? It just wouldn't feel the same if I was attacking with a Mecathopter. Not that I wouldn't remember that the Mecathopter was the same thing as Ornithopter, but deep down I'd like to take the same Ornithopter that got laughed at 15 years ago, and give that piece of cardboard a chance to redeem itself.

The Myth of Skill and Control

There is a common myth that people like to bandy around: Skilled players should should be playing control decks because they give you more opportunities to outplay your opponent. The longer you play, the more advantage the better player has. While this is in some way true, it doesn't account for other factors. The longer the game goes, the more opportunity your opponent has to draw cards that are good against you. The more time they have to make their shaky mana base work. The more time they have to make their overly expensive cards work for them. Intrinsic flaws in a deck can end up working towards their advantage. A deck that is very top-heavy may be terrible against an aggro deck, but it has a big advantage against a control deck, especially one without counterspells.

While you have more opportunities to outplay an opponent, you still have to be in situations that let you outplay them. Usually, it means getting more than 1 for 1 out of your removal, and otherwise gain card advantage. If your opponent has a deck full of dragons, you aren't going to be getting amazing advantage out of your wraths. Your deck better have a way to either deal with those creatures or get a large enough board advantage before they come down that you can win through them.

The thing about aggro decks is that they create a very real clock for your opponent. A deck like Kithkin or RDW can easily kill on turn 5 in t2. That means your opponent will be seeing somewhere in the range of 12-15 cards in the course of the game. Their opening seven is going to be FAR more relevant. A bad keep is going to be game over. Beyond that, cards that cost 5 or above aren't going to be as relevant in the match unless the have a way to accelerate or slow you down. There are less plays, but that also means that each play your opponent makes will end up being more important in the game. Playing the wrong creature on turn 2 vs. a control deck may not matter much in the long term, but it can mean taking an extra 4 vs. an aggro deck. Each mistake your opponent makes will give you a larger advantage in the game.

There isn't one steadfast rule to whether the aggro decks in a format or the control decks are more skill intensive. Certainly Teachings was a high-skill deck that rewarded people for playing perfectly, especially in the mirror. But so did Zoo in Extended. A lot of mirrors were decided by one player playing too aggressively and taking an extra 3 of 4 damage from their lands they didn't have to. Or trying to burn their opponent out instead of their creatures and losing to a lightning helix that gave their opponent the last few life points to outrace it.

Aggro decks also rely heavily on the pilot's ability to properly extend. It's been a long time since we've had a format with no reasonable wrath effects, so most games play out like this:

Aggro player throws creatures out

Control player wraths

Aggro player throws some more creatures out

Control player wraths

Then it comes down to how much gas the aggro player has left vs. how much gas the control player has left. In general, the control players cards will be better at this point in the game, so he now has the inevitability. Now, that assumes that the aggro player doesn't have much left. If an aggro player properly extends his board just enough to make the wrath an option, but not enough to make it a sure-fire play. That's when the aggro player has the advantage. When the control player has to decide if a 2 for 1 is enough, or if they should take another 4 and try to get the extra card out of it. Life totals become extremely important. At a low life total, every creature on the aggro deck's board is potentially lethal. The control player's ability to win the game is hindered by the risks involved in leaving creatures back to block. A small miscalcuation will cost them the game.

Instead of finding the most skill intensive deck in a format, work on playing the deck you want to play to the best of your ability. Learn how to force your opponent to make bad decisions, and how to play around the gameplan of the other decks in the format. There will always be ways to outplay your opponent - find out what they are and take advantage of them.

Bringing in New Ideas: Keeping Your Playgroup Healthy

Ever wonder why you can see someone at PTQs regularly who plays a solid game and wins a few here and there, then next thing you know they put up a nice Pro Tour performance and they stick on the train for a few years? You always seemed to do well against them when you played them. Did they suddenly drink from the cup of infinite wisdom or sell their soul to the devil? No, they just got a few dozen matches of professional-level experience of Magic. They were forced to play at a higher level, gained a lot of confidence, and learned a lot about the game in just a few days – and they took those lessons to heart.

The thing about playing at high-level events against a diverse body of players is that everyone has a slightly different take on the game. It’s very easy to get locked into a certain way of thinking about how to play different situations that come up a lot. A good example is with Grand Prix: Seattle and Mistbind Clique. Some of the pros mentioned how people were so used to being upkeep Clique’d that they were totally unprepared for a Clique after attackers were declared. In many people’s minds, Faeries had two four-mana plays facing and aggressive draw. They upkeep Clique or beginning of combat Cryptic. These are so easy to play around it becomes mechanical, so a third option seemingly out of nowhere left them in a much worse position than the plays they were expecting.

For limited, people in different countries often have radically different valuations and strategies. Some people like the solid white-based aggro decks, some people are more than happy to force 5c every time. You attack your 2/2 into their 3/3. In your experience, your opponent takes it because they know you have the pump spell. Not this opponent. They block and force you to use it. They didn’t doubt you had it– they just felt that the tempo loss on your side of the board was worth losing a creature. Plus, now you can’t find a more advantageous time to use that spell. The more you can experience people succeeding with different strategies, the more your eyes open to the reality that there are tens if not hundreds of ways to play out the same games. If you let yourself fall into the trap of thinking that the cards play themselves out in the same way every time, then your games will all fall into the same pattern and you will have no way to win other than drawing better than your opponent.

A constant stream of knowledge is very important to the success of any playgroup’s success in the long term. Playgroups without a lot of outside influence become inbred very quickly. It’s important to find a way to bring knowledge into your group from other groups. This could just mean going to more PTQs and seeing how people in your region play, reading articles to see what the pros have to say, or going even further. You need to see new decks, new plays, and cards you are not used to seeing. If someone outside your playgroup plays a card in limited that you think is a solid 14^th pick, you should take notice. It may not be a great card, but you may be totally misevaluating a card that doesn’t fit into your preconceived notions of the format.

Someone I used to play with, Kenny Hsuing, spent a lot of time going to GPs and money drafting before he was Pro Tour caliber. He was loud, boisterous, and in general had the perfect personality for a money drafter. This was in the days of Masques and Invasion when money drafts were the big thing, where just about as much money exchanged hands as during the main event. Kenny was good for the local and PTQ level, but there was nothing that would have made him think he was ready to play the top-name pros in a 3v3 for twenty, thirty, fifty bucks or more. And he knew that. He knew that he was a major underdog in those drafts, but he also knew that the pros took their money seriously and would show him a thing or two. And they did.

A few months of this, and he was playing at a professional level. He went from Top8ing PTQs to winning them and having a few good GP and PT performances. And winning money drafts left or right. His teammates were generally pro tour regulars or semi-pros, but even they gained a lot by playing at the top tier. More than just that, they met a number of the top pros at the time and made contacts and friendships that were immensely useful when it came time to prepare for the tour.

When they came back from these events, they brought this knowledge to our local store, Egghead Games, for the constant Friday and Saturday night drafting, and the quality of the players in the store jumped dramatically. Pretty soon we went from sending a person or two to the occasional Pro Tour to regularly sending 5+ people and one of them, Alex Borteh, managed to get a few Grand Prix top8s, Top 8’d US Nationals twice and get 2^nd at Worlds.

Could they have accomplished this just by drafting the local players? Possibly. But they never would have learned how other pros drafted differently or gotten used to being punished for every mistake. There is a habit for playgroups to become too comfortable in their draft picks. It’s very easy for everyone to discount a powerful strategy or undervalue a hidden gem in the set. If nobody bothers trying the U/R Lavamancer’s Skill deck in Onslaught or the Dampen Thought strategy in Champions, then nobody in your playgroup will be ready for it if they see it in action. More importantly, they won’t be able to pick up that strategy and have the chance to beat others who haven’t figured it out yet.

Chances are that your playgroup doesn’t have someone who is on the tour to help bring in ideas from distant lands, but that doesn’t mean you can’t find them. Magic Online and improved strategy sites have to an extent removed the need to exchange draft strategy in person, and the resources for finding new decks online at sites like deckcheck.net. Someone in your group should subscribe to SCG Premium. Someone in your group should be checking for new decks on the Internet. Someone should be talking on message boards about strategy. The more people in your group look to different avenues for strategy, the more their own strategy will diverge from the group, and the more diversity of opinions you will have. The strongest groups in my experience are ones where everyone brings something different and useful to the table.

Despite it’s limitations (which I’m sure I will go into in a future article), MODO does have a very important role in the health of any playgroup. As I said before, left to their own devices, playgroups tend to become inbred. Much like Darwin’s finches, people will adapt to their surroundings and develop the skills and strategies to beat the people within their own group and lose skills and strategies that do not come up. Nobody in your group plays the typical red deck? People will end up adjusting their sideboard strategies away from beating that deck. Everyone plays it? People will end up including niche cards and become weaker against the field. Having at least a few people that do MODO, or play paper magic outside of your sphere of influence, will bring in decks and strategies that the rest of the group are unused to, and will strengthen it as a whole. While the MODO constructed queues do have a tendency to lean towards cheaper decks and it isn’t uncommon to see a few cost-related substitutions. Still, you decks that often surprise the coverage team and columnists alike are often well known to the hardcore MODO community. Decks emerge on MODO with a frightening regularity, and it’s good for any group to have someone who can keep up with it and bring the latest tech to the table.

Magic is a constantly evolving game. If you want to be playing at the professional level, or even just doing well at PTQs, you need to be willing to change with it. You need to be constantly thinking about what you are doing and why you are doing it. You need to realize that your solutions to the problems that come up are not the only ones, and there is a great deal of value in looking at things in a different way. Always be willing to learn from your opponent’s play. When you are with your playgroup, bring whatever you know to the table, be ready to share, and ready to learn.

Helping Others Helps Yourself

People ask me sometimes how they can improve at Magic. I’m not always sure why they are asking me, but I do my best to help them. Usually it’s people who are already playing fairly well, but can’t seem to ever make it to the top of the PTQ level. They 4-3 or 5-2 a lot, or just can’t get through the first round of top 8. It’s a frustrating level of skill to be at because you feel like you are SO close to making it to the big show, but that’s not always the case. It feels like if you just corrected a mistake in your round three match, then you would have ended up at 6-1 instead of 5-2.

That’s not how it works. There is a big difference between 5-2 and 6-1. Each round you play at a Magic tournament while you are undefeated, your opponents on average get harder. The later you get, the more skilled opponents you will see at x-1. After two losses, most players still playing will not be great opponents. Your games will be much easier. Going 5-0, 0-2 is a much different experience than 0-2, 5-0.

Round 1 is generally pretty random. You might get a level 3 pro, you might get a six –year old child. In general, you can expect an easy match. The people who are undefeated at the end of round three are generally going to be better than the people at 2-1. By round 4, you start seeing the same people who are always at the top tables. The further you go down, the more random the players get. You have a higher probability of seeing tier 2 or below decks and players who will give you games. By the end, at least half of the people playing for top8 have been there before, generally over and over again. And you know what? Most of them will win.

They win not just because they are better players (though they probably are), but because they are used to playing at that higher-level of competition. They are used to the pressure, and they have played dozens, if not more, matches in the same position. Win, top 8, lose, a few packs. They are ready for this match in every sense of the word, and if you are not, you are at a serious disadvantage.

So, how do you start winning these matches? Play more of them. The more you are used to playing high-quality opponents, the more calm and collected you will be in that situation. The more you are used to having a crowd around your match, the easier it is for you to ignore it and just play your game. There isn’t a shortcut for getting used to the pressure, but there is a good way to get used to playing better opponents. Play more of them.

The idea is simple enough - to get better at Magic, you need to play against the best players possible. If you live in New York, or Los Angeles, or any hotbed of tournament action, this may be as simple as finding the right store. If your area doesn’t have any top tier players, then you need to bring the level of the players in your area up. If you are the best player around you, you will need to show the players around you how to beat you. This may seem counterintuitive – you win in the long run by losing short run, but the important thing is to win when the PT slot is on the line instead of a few packs at FNM. Many people want their opponents to be better, but they don’t want to lose to them. It reminds me of St. Augustine of Hippo famous quote, “Lord, make me chaste – but not yet.” If you help your opponents get better, you will lose more. That’s fine. The more you lose, the more you will learn because your mistakes will begin to matter, and you will have to find new ways to take control of the game.

The skill level of playgroups has a tendency to average out. If your opponents aren’t getting better than you are getting worse. You may still win every FNM, but the skills you need to win at higher levels will atrophy when you don’t need to work for your wins. To an extent, being better than your opponents will make them better as they pick up on your tricks, but you need to do more than that. Some people don’t want to improve, but when they do, point out their mistakes. Tell them about the things they do wrong. Talk to tem about how they always draft the same deck, and how why they need to stop playing goofy standard decks. Let them borrow that fourth Cryptic Command for a tournament. Or the second, third and fourth Cryptic Commands, even if it may beats you. How much do you really learn from beating a deck that is using negates instead? You may win a few more packs now, but if your goal is to play in the big game, you should sacrifice those for possibility of future winnings. And how much does your opponent learn by playing decks full of cheap substitutes?

If you are simply playtesting, then talk about game states. If you think your opponent made a huge mistake, take some time to go over it. That‘s what playtesting is for. You don’t need to allow takebacks, but at least let people know when they make mistakes in testing so they won’t make them again. You may win every playtesting match because your opponent Mistbind Cliques at the wrong time, but that doesn’t help either of you in the long run. I’ve seen people I’ve tested with allow their opponents to make the same mistakes over and over again just so they could win playtesting matches. That’s the worst thing you could possibly do. I’d rather lose every playtest match than one at a tournament. The better your entire playgroup learns to play decks and magic in general, the more productive your testing will be.

It’s easy to view improving at Magic as a solitary activity, but it‘s rarely so. The only way to improve is to be challenged, and the only way to be challenged is to play against players of around your level or better. If you aren’t willing to help the people around you to improve, then you will be stuck forever being a big fish in a little pond.