Monday, June 29, 2009

The Myth of Skill and Control

There is a common myth that people like to bandy around: Skilled players should should be playing control decks because they give you more opportunities to outplay your opponent. The longer you play, the more advantage the better player has. While this is in some way true, it doesn't account for other factors. The longer the game goes, the more opportunity your opponent has to draw cards that are good against you. The more time they have to make their shaky mana base work. The more time they have to make their overly expensive cards work for them. Intrinsic flaws in a deck can end up working towards their advantage. A deck that is very top-heavy may be terrible against an aggro deck, but it has a big advantage against a control deck, especially one without counterspells.

While you have more opportunities to outplay an opponent, you still have to be in situations that let you outplay them. Usually, it means getting more than 1 for 1 out of your removal, and otherwise gain card advantage. If your opponent has a deck full of dragons, you aren't going to be getting amazing advantage out of your wraths. Your deck better have a way to either deal with those creatures or get a large enough board advantage before they come down that you can win through them.

The thing about aggro decks is that they create a very real clock for your opponent. A deck like Kithkin or RDW can easily kill on turn 5 in t2. That means your opponent will be seeing somewhere in the range of 12-15 cards in the course of the game. Their opening seven is going to be FAR more relevant. A bad keep is going to be game over. Beyond that, cards that cost 5 or above aren't going to be as relevant in the match unless the have a way to accelerate or slow you down. There are less plays, but that also means that each play your opponent makes will end up being more important in the game. Playing the wrong creature on turn 2 vs. a control deck may not matter much in the long term, but it can mean taking an extra 4 vs. an aggro deck. Each mistake your opponent makes will give you a larger advantage in the game.

There isn't one steadfast rule to whether the aggro decks in a format or the control decks are more skill intensive. Certainly Teachings was a high-skill deck that rewarded people for playing perfectly, especially in the mirror. But so did Zoo in Extended. A lot of mirrors were decided by one player playing too aggressively and taking an extra 3 of 4 damage from their lands they didn't have to. Or trying to burn their opponent out instead of their creatures and losing to a lightning helix that gave their opponent the last few life points to outrace it.

Aggro decks also rely heavily on the pilot's ability to properly extend. It's been a long time since we've had a format with no reasonable wrath effects, so most games play out like this:

Aggro player throws creatures out
Control player wraths
Aggro player throws some more creatures out
Control player wraths

Then it comes down to how much gas the aggro player has left vs. how much gas the control player has left. In general, the control players cards will be better at this point in the game, so he now has the inevitability. Now, that assumes that the aggro player doesn't have much left. If an aggro player properly extends his board just enough to make the wrath an option, but not enough to make it a sure-fire play. That's when the aggro player has the advantage. When the control player has to decide if a 2 for 1 is enough, or if they should take another 4 and try to get the extra card out of it. Life totals become extremely important. At a low life total, every creature on the aggro deck's board is potentially lethal. The control player's ability to win the game is hindered by the risks involved in leaving creatures back to block. A small miscalcuation will cost them the game.

Instead of finding the most skill intensive deck in a format, work on playing the deck you want to play to the best of your ability. Learn how to force your opponent to make bad decisions, and how to play around the gameplan of the other decks in the format. There will always be ways to outplay your opponent - find out what they are and take advantage of them.

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